Tag Archives: Art

Reviews: ‘The Week In Art’

THE WEEK IN ART (October 2, 2025): The latest episode feature a new exhibition at the Fitzwilliam Museum in Cambridge, UK, called Made in Ancient Egypt, reveals untold stories of the people behind a host of remarkable objects, and the technology and techniques they used.

The Art Newspaper’s digital editor, Alexander Morrison visits the museum to take a tour with the curator, Helen Strudwick. One of the great revelations of the past two decades in scholarship about women artists is Michaelina Wautier, the Baroque painter active in what is now Belgium in the middle of the 17th century. The largest ever exhibition of Wautier’s work opened this week at the Kunsthistorisches Museum in Vienna, and travels to the Royal Academy of Arts in London next year.

Ben Luke speaks to the art historian who rediscovered this extraordinary painter, Katlijne Van der Stighelen, who has also co-edited the catalogue of the Vienna show. And this episode’s Work of the Week is Robert Rauschenberg’s Bed (1955), one of the most important works of US art of the post-war period. It features in the exhibition Five Friends: John Cage, Merce Cunningham, Jasper Johns, Robert Rauschenberg, Cy Twombly, which this week arrives at the Museum Ludwig in Cologne.

We speak to Yilmaz Dziewior, the co-curator of the exhibition.

Made in Ancient Egypt, Fitzwilliam Museum, Cambridge, UK, 3 October-2 April 2026

Michaelina Wautier, Painter, Kunsthistorisches Museum, Vienna

30 September-22 February 2026; Royal Academy of Arts, London

27 March – 21 June 2026.

Five Friends: John Cage, Merce Cunningham, Jasper Johns, Robert Rauschenberg, Cy Twombly, Museum Ludwig, Cologne, Germany,

3 October-11 January 2026

THE HOUR-LONG FUTURE

How Chicago’s oldest exchange bet on sixty-minute markets, and what it means when certainty itself is priced like a parlay.

Inspired by conversations on Bloomberg’s “Odd Lots” podcast, October 2, 2025, this essay explores the collision of Chicago’s most venerable marketplace with America’s newest gambling instinct.

By Michael Cummins, Editor, October 2, 2025

Chicago declares its weather. The wind comes down LaSalle Street like a verdict, rattling the brass doors of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), the world’s largest derivatives marketplace, and Terry Duffy keeps telling the same story about the Sears Tower. Once, Sears was so secure it stamped its name onto the tallest building in the country. Then Amazon arrived and the edifice outlived the company. Duffy repeats the story because he knows it could happen to him. He is the custodian of a market built on trust and clearing, and he now presides over a future in which markets themselves have begun to resemble slot machines.

When CME announced this summer that it would partner with FanDuel to launch retail-friendly “event contracts,” the move was described, in the buttoned-down language of FIA MarketVoice, as bringing “Wall Street to Main Street.” But the reality is stranger: the nation’s most venerable exchange has chosen to build a door onto a sports-betting app. The product is stark in its simplicity—fully funded, binary contracts tied to benchmarks like the S&P 500, gold, or the monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI), each available for a dollar, each expiring in sixty minutes. “We want to attract a new generation of retail traders,” CME explained in its release, emphasizing transparency, defined risk, and the symbolic price point that even the most casual bettor can afford.

Duffy knows what it is to sell certainty. He began his career in the pits, where certainty was conjured out of chaos. To enter the pit was to descend into a human engine: men in jackets of vivid color, chalk dust in the air, sweat soaking the collars, voices rising to a roar. Each shout was a legal contract; each hand signal, a coded promise. Palm in meant buy, palm out meant sell. A quick nod sealed the trade. A look in the eye carried as much weight as a notarized document. The pit was a place where trust was physical, embodied, and enforced by reputation.

He still carries it in his cadence. His sentences are short, clipped, emphatic, relics of the pits’ staccato. A “yes” had to carry over the roar, and a “no” had to land like a gavel. He learned that a man’s word was binding; a lie meant exile. To Duffy, the roar was not noise but a symphony of accountability.

Contrast that to the FanDuel app, silent and frictionless. No shouts, no sweat, no eye contact. A bet placed with a swipe, confirmed by a vibration in the pocket. The counterparty is invisible; the clearing is algorithmic. The visceral contract of the pit has become the abstract contract of the phone. For Duffy, the gap is more than technological—it is civilizational.

His survival has always depended on bridging gaps. In 2007, he forced CME and the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT)—longstanding rivals, territorial and proud—into a merger that saved both from decline. It was, at the time, a brutal clash of cultures. Pit traders who once hurled insults across LaSalle now shared a roof. Duffy’s achievement was to convince them that survival required sacrifice. The precedent matters now: he knows when to abandon tradition in order to preserve the institution. He has led the exchange for over two decades, long enough to embody continuity in a world addicted to rupture.

Which is why he returns, again and again, to the Sears Tower. Sears did not collapse overnight. Its decline was gradual: catalogs left unopened, trust eroded, relevance seeped away. Sears represented predictability—a known price, a tangible good. It was undone by the infinite shelf of Amazon, where everything was available, untethered from a physical catalog. Duffy fears the same for CME: that in the infinite, unregulated shelf of crypto and apps, the certainty of a clearinghouse will be forgotten. He has made himself the defender of that certainty, even as he opens the door to the FanDuel crowd.

Imagine it, then, not in Chicago but in Des Moines: a woman on her lunch break, soup cooling in its paper cup, phone buzzing with the faintly cheerful ping of a FanDuel notification. She scrolls past the Raiders’ line, taps the “markets” tab, and there it is: gold, $1,737. Above or below? Sixty minutes to decide. She glances at the chart, flickering like a slot machine, and stakes a dollar. Her coworker laughs—he’s on crude oil, betting it falls before the hour. It is a small act, private and almost whimsical. But multiply it by millions, and the cathedral of Chicago has rented space to the gamblers.

Amy Howe, FanDuel’s chief executive, prefers another framing. “By working with CME Group, we can give consumers a transparent, fully funded product with clear rules and protections,” she said in August. For her, the lunch-break wager is less a symptom of dopamine culture than an act of empowerment, bounded by disclosure and design. Later, she would describe it as “responsible innovation for a generation that already expects to engage with markets digitally.”

The phone has conditioned us to view every decision as a micro-transaction with binary payoff, a perpetual A/B test of our own lives. Swipe left or right, invest in Tesla or short its sales, like or ignore, vote or abstain. Certainty itself has become a parlay. The event contract is merely the most transparent expression of this new algorithmic certainty.

Duffy knows the critique—that he is blurring investing and gambling, putting the reputation of the world’s most trusted clearinghouse in play. He shrugs off the taxonomy. “Find me an investment without speculation,” he challenges. Speculators create liquidity; investors ride the train. The problem is not the label. The problem is whether the architecture can hold.

Once, hedging was about survival. A farmer locked in the price of corn to guarantee his family’s subsistence through drought. A grain elevator hedged to manage inventory. Futures were the sober instrument of risk management, a tool for keeping bread on tables. The retail contracts on FanDuel are different. They are not designed to secure a season’s yield but to occupy a lunch break. The hedger and the gambler both face uncertainty, but one does so to live through winter, the other to feel a flicker of dopamine.

What happens when a generation learns to price its risks in sixty-minute increments? When patience is dissolved into perpetual refresh, when civic trust is reshaped by the grammar of instant payoff? Perhaps we become more rational, disciplined consumers of risk. More likely, we become addicted to ever-shorter horizons, citizens of a republic of immediacy.

The FanDuel tie-up is not an aberration; it is the logical culmination of a broader gamification. Fitness apps turn calories into wins and losses. Dating apps transform intimacy into binary swipes. Diet apps offer daily streaks, productivity trackers chart each hour, social media doles out likes. The logic is universal: win or lose, in the money or out. Finance is simply the purest distillation of the loop. The hour-long future looks less like a radical departure than the natural endpoint of the dopamine economy.

Duffy insists that the difference lies in the architecture of the market. Here, the clearinghouse still rules. The CME Clearing division guarantees that each contract, no matter how small, will clear. This is the core trust mechanism: novation. The clearinghouse steps in as the buyer to every seller and the seller to every buyer. It guarantees performance even if a party defaults. It is the invisible institution that makes markets work, as essential as plumbing or electricity. Without clearing, a market is just a game of promises. With clearing, promises become enforceable contracts.

This is why Duffy obsesses over jurisdiction. The nickel crisis in London remains his cautionary tale. When the London Metal Exchange (LME) canceled billions in nickel trades in 2022, after a massive short squeeze threatened a major client, it violated the principle that trades, once made, must stand. In Duffy’s view, this was sacrilege. If trades can be retroactively voided, trust collapses. The nickel debacle lingers as a ghost story he tells often: what happens when clearing is not sacred, when the rules bend to expedience?

The tax code, too, becomes part of his defense. Section 1256 of the Internal Revenue Code gives futures a blended 60/40 tax treatment—sixty percent long-term, forty percent short-term—even though they expire quickly. This means that a futures trader, even in hourly event contracts, can claim a rate unavailable to sports bettors. The distinction between “future” and “security” may be arcane, but in the retail economy it could be decisive. Why place a bet on an unregulated platform with higher tax burdens when you could trade an event future inside CME’s fortress? Duffy is building his moat out of law as well as architecture.

Yet even he admits there are red lines. Political prediction markets, for instance. At first glance, they seem like an extension of the model. Why not allow bets on elections, if you can bet on CPI or jobs reports? But Duffy sees danger. Imagine a small-town school bond vote. A motivated actor buys all the “Yes” contracts, pushing the price higher, creating the illusion of inevitability. Undecided voters, reading the “market,” assume the bond will pass and vote accordingly. Speculation becomes self-fulfilling. A democracy of markets quickly becomes a market for democracy.

The Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM) were tolerated because they were small, academic, pedagogical—designed to teach students about probabilities. But scaled onto a national betting app, political contracts would cease to be an experiment and become an accelerant. Duffy resists. “Every political event is not a presidential election,” he warns. Some are small enough to be readily manipulable. And the Commodity Exchange Act is explicit: contracts cannot be.

He also resists the temptation of perpetual futures. Crypto invented them as an answer to expiry, an infinite bet that never resolves. To Duffy, they fail the laugh test. Immortal cattle cannot be delivered. Wheat cannot grow forever. A Treasury future must expire into a bond. A future without resolution is not a hedge but a hallucination.

Still, he is not afraid of arriving late. In 2017, he was mocked for waiting to list Bitcoin futures. When he did, CME became the premier venue for hedging crypto risk. His philosophy is consistent: better to be late with credibility than early with chaos. “Go when the architecture can hold,” he says, and it sounds less like a trading maxim than a worldview.

The contradiction remains: the man who built his authority in the pits, enforcing trust by the pressure of a body, is now enabling the gamification of markets by the tap of a thumb. Is he selling his integrity, or saving the concept of the market by absorbing the dopamine impulse into its ancient structure? Is CME, in joining FanDuel, protecting the house—or merely becoming one more casino in an infinite arcade?

He walks a city that remembers. The Sears Tower still stands, though its name has eroded. The ghost-hum of the pits lingers in his cadence. The wind whips down LaSalle, eternal as ever. The phones in people’s pockets glow across the country, each a miniature trading pit, silent and frictionless. A new market is trying to clear—not just trades, but trust, patience, and perhaps the architecture of democracy itself.

THIS ESSAY WAS WRITTEN AND EDITED UTILIZING AI

APOLLO MAGAZINE – OCTOBER 2025 PREVIEW

October 2025

APOLLO MAGAZINE: The latest issue features Hew Locke and the Empire’s new clothes | Princeton University Art Museum reopens | William Hogarth’s bedside manner | the many faces of Nigerian modernism


Hew Locke and the Empire’s new clothes

On the eve of a major US survey, the artist talks to Apollo about decorating statues and the ornamental side of the British Empire

A compact history of the London mews

By turns picturesque and insalubrious, mews houses have a compellingly chequered past

Art Basel’s smallest fair has big ambitions

Eclectic art and innovative curation are helping Art Basel Paris fly the flag for the French art market

New frontiers for the Chinese art market

Work by late 20th-century and contemporary Chinese artists has been throwing up surprises recently

THE LONELINESS BET

How microgambling apps turn male solitude into profit.

By Michael Cummins, Editor, September 30, 2025

The slot machine has left the casino. Now, with AI precision, it waits in your pocket—timing its ping to the hour of your despair.

The ghost light of the television washes the room, a half-forgotten Japanese baseball game murmuring from the corner. Alex sits in the dark with his phone held at the angle of prayer, the glass an altar, an oracle, a mirror. A ping sounds, small and precise, like a tuning fork struck in his palm. Next pitch outcome—strikeout or walk? Odds updated live. Numbers flicker like minnows. The bet slip breathes. He leans forward. The silence is not merely the absence of sound, but the pressure of who isn’t there—a vacuum he has carried for years.

The fridge hums behind him, its light flickering like a faulty heartbeat. On the counter, unopened mail piles beside a half-eaten sandwich. His last real conversation was three days ago, a polite nod to the barista who remembered his name. At work, Zoom windows open and close, Slack messages ping and vanish. He is present, but not seen.

He is one of the nearly one in three American men who report regular loneliness. For him, the sportsbook app isn’t entertainment but companionship, the only thing that demands his attention consistently. The ping of the odds is the sound of synthetic connection. Tonight he is wagering on something absurdly small: a late-night table tennis serve in an Eastern European hall he’ll never see. Yet the stakes feel immense. Last year in Oregon, bettors wagered more than $100 million on table tennis alone, according to reporting by The New York Times. This is the new American pastime—no stadium, no friends, just a restless man and a glowing rectangle. The algorithm has found a way to commodify the quiet desperation of a Sunday evening.

This isn’t an evolution in gambling; it’s a fundamental violation of the natural pace of risk. Pregame wagers once demanded patience: a pick, a wait, a final score. Microbetting abolishes the pause. It slices sport into thousands of coin-sized moments and resolves them in seconds. Behavioral scientists call this variable-ratio reinforcement: rewards arriving unpredictably, the most potent engine of compulsion. Slot machines use it. Now sports apps do too. The prefrontal cortex, which might otherwise whisper caution, has no time to speak. Tap. Resolve. Tap again.

The shift is from the calculated risk of an investment to the pure reflex of a hammer hitting a knee. Fifty-two percent of online bettors admit to “chasing a bet”—the desperate reflex to wager more after losing. One in five confess to losing more than they could afford. The harm isn’t accidental; it’s engineered. Rachel Volberg, who has studied problem gambling for four decades, told The New York Times that live betting is “much more akin to a slot machine rather than a lottery ticket.” It bypasses deliberation, keeping the brain trapped in a continuous, chemical loop.

And it isn’t marginal to the industry. Live wagers already account for more than half of all money bet on DraftKings and FanDuel. The slot machine has left the casino. It is now in the pocket, always on, always glowing.

The uncanny efficiency of the app lies not in predicting what Alex will bet, but when he will be weakest. After midnight. After a loss. After a deposit he swore not to make. DraftKings’ $134 million purchase of Simplebet, as reported by The New York Times, wasn’t just a business deal; it was the acquisition of a behavioral engine. These models are trained not only on the game but on the gambler himself—how quickly he scrolls, when he logs on, whether his bets swell after defeat, whether his activity spikes on holidays.

DraftKings has gone further, partnering with Amazon Web Services to refine its predictive architecture. At a recent engineering summit in Sofia, engineers demonstrated how generative AI and AWS tools could enhance the personalization of wagers. The same anticipatory logic that once powered retail nudges—“this user is hovering over a product, send a discount”—is now recalibrated to detect emotional vulnerability. In betting apps, the purchase is a wager, the discount is a boost, and the timing is everything: late at night, after a loss, when silence settles heaviest.

The AI’s profile of Alex is more precise than any friend’s. It has categorized his distress. Recent surveys suggest men in the lowest income brackets report loneliness at twice the rate of wealthier peers—a demographic vulnerability the models can detect and exploit through the timing and size of his wagers. Loneliness among men overall has risen by more than thirty percent in the past decade. An algorithm that watches his patterns doesn’t need to imagine his state of mind. It times it.

The profile is not a dashboard; it’s a lever. It logs his loneliest hours as his most profitable. It recognizes reckless bets after a gut-punch loss and surfaces fast, high-variance markets promising a chemical reset. Then comes the nudge: “Yankees boost—tap now.” “Next serve: Djokovic by ace?” To Alex it feels like telepathy. In truth, the system has mapped and monetized his despair. As one DraftKings data scientist explained at a gambling conference, in remarks quoted by The New York Times: “If we know a user likes to bet Yankees games late, we can send the right notification at the right time.” The right time, of course, is often the loneliest time.

Microbetting doesn’t just gamify sport—it gamifies emotion. The app doesn’t care if Alex is bored, anxious, or heartbroken. It cares only that those states correlate with taps. In this system, volatility is value. The more erratic the mood, the more frequent the bets. In this economy of emotional liquidity, feelings themselves become tradable assets. A moment of heartbreak, a restless midnight, a twinge of boredom—all can be harvested. Dating apps convert longing into swipes. Fitness trackers translate guilt into streaks. Robinhood gamified trading with digital confetti. Sportsbooks are simply the most brazen: they turn solitude into wagers, despair into deposits.

Beneath the betting slips lies a hunger for competence. Only forty-one percent of men say they can confide in someone about personal problems. Men without college degrees report far fewer close friendships. Many describe themselves as not meaningfully part of any group or community. In that vacuum, the interface whispers: You are decisive. You are strategic. You can still win. Microbetting offers a synthetic agency: decisiveness on demand, mastery without witness. For men whose traditional roles—provider, protector, head of household—have been destabilized by economic precarity or cultural drift, the app provides the illusion of restored mastery.

The sheer volume of micro-choices acts as a placebo for real-world complexity. Where a career or relationship requires slow, uncertain effort, the app offers instant scenarios of risk and resolution. The system is perfectly aligned with the defense mechanism of isolation: self-soothing through hyper-focus and instant gratification. The product packages loneliness as raw material.

The genius of the app is its disguise. It feels less like a gambling tool than an unjudging confidant, always awake, always responsive, oddly tender. Welcome back. Boost unlocked. You might like… A digital shadow that knows your rhythms better than any friend.

“The clients I see gamble in the shower,” says counselor Harry Levant. “They gamble in bed in the morning.” The app has colonized spaces once reserved for intimacy or solitude. Men and women report similar levels of loneliness overall, but men are far less likely to seek help. That gap makes them uniquely susceptible to a companion that demands nothing but money.

FanDuel actively recruits engineers with backgrounds in personalization, behavioral analytics, and predictive modeling—the same skills that fine-tuned retail shopping and streaming recommendations. There is no direct pipeline from Amazon’s hover-prediction teams to the sportsbooks, but the resemblance is unmistakable. What began as an effort to predict which blender you might buy has evolved into predicting which late-inning pitch you’ll gamble on when you’re most alone.

Some apps already track how hard you press the screen, how fast you scroll, how long you hesitate before tapping. These aren’t quirks—they’re signals. A slower scroll after midnight? That’s loneliness. A rapid tap after a loss? That’s desperation. The app doesn’t need to ask how you feel. It knows. What looks like care is in fact surveillance masquerading as intimacy.

For Alex, the spiral accelerates. Fifty. Then a hundred. Then two-fifty. No pause, no friction. Deposits smooth through in seconds. His body answers the staccato pace like it’s sprinting—breath shallow, fingers hot. Loss is eclipsed instantly by the next chance to be right. This is not a malfunction. It is maximum efficiency.

In Phoenix, Chaz Donati, a gambler profiled by The New York Times, panicked over a $158,000 bet on his hometown team and tried to counter-bet his way back with another $256,000. Hundreds of thousands vanished in a single night. After online sportsbooks launched, help-seeking searches for gambling addiction surged by sixty percent in some states. The pattern is unmistakable: the faster the bets, the faster the collapse. The app smooths the path, designed to be faster than his conscience.

In Vancouver, Andrew Pace, a professional bettor described by The New York Times, sits before three monitors, scanning Finnish hockey odds with surgical calm. He bets sparingly, surgically, explaining edges to his livestream audience. For him, the app is a tool, not a companion. He treats it as a craft: discipline, spreadsheets, controlled risk. But he is the exception. Most users aren’t chasing edges—they’re chasing feelings. The sportsbook knows the difference, and the business model depends on the latter.

Meanwhile, the sport itself is shifting. Leagues like the NBA and NFL own equity in the data firms—Sportradar, Genius Sports—that provide the feeds fueling microbets. They are not neutral observers; they are partners. The integrity threat is no longer fixing a whole game but corrupting micro-moments. Major League Baseball has already investigated pitchers for suspicious wagers tied to individual pitches. When financial value is assigned to the smallest, most uncertain unit of the game, every human error becomes suspect. The roar of the crowd is drowned out by the private vibration of phones.

Lawmakers have begun to stir. In New Jersey, legislators have proposed banning microbets outright, citing research from Australia showing nearly eighty percent of micro-bettors meet the criteria for problem gambling. Representative Paul Tonko has pushed for national standards: deposit caps, affordability checks, mandatory cool-off periods. “We regulate tobacco and alcohol,” he said. “Why not emotional risk?” Public health advocates echo him, warning of “a silent epidemic of digital compulsion.” The industry resists. Guardrails, they insist, would ruin the experience—which, of course, is the point.

The deeper question is not consumer choice; it is algorithmic ethics. Loneliness is already a recognized risk factor for cardiovascular disease and dementia. What happens when the same predictive infrastructure used to ship packages anticipatorily or recommend movies is redeployed to time despair? The failure to regulate is a failure to acknowledge that algorithmic harm can be as corrosive as any toxin.

At 2:03 a.m., Alex finally closes the app. The screen goes dark. The room exhales. The silence returns—not as peace, but as pressure. The television murmurs on, but the game is long over. What remains is residue: the phantom buzz of a notification that hasn’t arrived, the muscle memory of a finger poised to tap, the echo of odds that promised redemption.

He tells himself he’s done for the night. But the algorithm doesn’t need urgency. It waits. It knows his hours, his teams, the emotional dip that comes after a loss. It will tap him again, softly, precisely, when the silence grows too loud.

One in four young men will feel this same loneliness tomorrow night. The casino will be waiting in their pockets, dressed as a companion, coded for their cravings. Outside, dawn edges the blinds. Somewhere a stadium will fill tomorrow, a crowd roaring in unison. But in apartments like Alex’s, the roar has been replaced by a private buzz, a vibration against the skin. The app is patient. The silence is temporary. The house never sleeps.

Because in this new emotional economy, silence is never a stop. It is only a pause. And the algorithm waits for the ping.

THIS ESSAY WAS WRITTEN AND EDITED UTILIZING AI

SILENCE AFTER THE BELL

Bashō’s narrow road, re-imagined in ink and light

By Michael Cummins, Editor, September 24, 2025

In the spring of 1689, Matsuo Bashō set out from Edo with his inkstone and his disciple, walking north through Japan’s interior. This essay imagines the painter Ogata Kōrin at his side, brush catching what haiku left unsaid: the lantern’s glow, a fox’s mischief, the silence after sound.

The morning I left Edo, the sky was thick with petals. Cherry blossoms fell in sudden gusts, scattering across canals and clinging to the backs of merchants. Someone in the crowd said my name. “Bashō—the man of stillness.” The words felt like a shroud. Stillness was not peace. Stillness was suffocation.

I carried only a robe, a small pack, and my inkstone. I gave no notice, offered no farewell. A poet should know the difference between an entrance and an exit, and Edo was drowning in entrances—recitations in smoky salons, verses pinned to pillars, applause echoing in courtyards. To slip away silently was my only true poem.

Sora, my disciple, waited by the gate, his journal tied at his side. Beside him stood Ogata Kōrin, carrying brushes wrapped in cloth, a small box of pigments, and sheets of fine paper. He was famed for painting bold pines and cranes against gold, but he wanted to walk with us, to see if paint could keep pace with words.

“You walk for silence,” he said as we stepped into the road.

“And you?” I asked.

“I will paint the sound.”


A crow on a bare branch—
autumn evening.

Walking unstitched illusions. You cannot hurry rain. You cannot plead with a mountain. Each step was a reminder of smallness.

Oku—the interior—was more than geography. It was the hidden chamber within things. To walk north into deep country was to step into the interior of myself.

The road gave humility: a thin robe against spring wind, an empty belly by sundown, blistered feet in straw sandals. Hunger was not a lack but a space for the world to fill. Only when stripped of comfort could I hear the world breathe.


By the second month, rains thickened. Each evening Sora dried our sandals by the inn’s hearth, though by morning they were heavy again.

At a mountain temple, a monk struck the great bell. The sound swelled, then emptied into air.

“Not the ringing,” he whispered, “the silence after—that is the true temple.”

Kōrin ground his ink and left behind a circle fading into white paper. I looked at it and felt the hush expand. His first gift of the journey.

Pine shadow—
the road bends
to meet it.


Summer pressed down like a hand. Cicadas shrieked in the trees, their chorus burning itself away. At a roadside inn, a farmer’s wife handed me a bowl of barley and salt.

“Why walk in this heat?” she asked.

“To see what words cannot hold,” I said. She laughed, shaking her head.

That night, I listened to the cicadas outside the window. Kōrin painted their wings in silver strokes. Sora struggled to describe them, blotting his brush, sighing. Not every moment can be pinned to the page.

One afternoon, a girl chased dragonflies, sleeves spread like wings. She caught none, but her laughter rang sharper than capture. Kōrin caught her mid-flight in vermilion. He pressed the paper into Sora’s hands. “If you cannot hold it with words,” he said, “let color remind you.”


We reached Matsushima, where pine-covered islets scattered like jewels across the bay. Some places do not need words. Kōrin’s blues and greens glowed even at dusk.

That night, fireflies pressed against the paper walls of our hut, their glow brighter than the lamp. I set down my brush. Some nights call for silence more than lines.

Later, in a fishing village, I collapsed with fever. A fisherman’s wife placed cloths on my brow and whispered prayers to the sea.

When I woke, Kōrin held out a small painting of a lantern’s glow against dark waves. The flame was steadier than I had felt in days.

Lantern flickers—
the sea’s hush louder
than my pulse.


By August, the barley fields had turned gold. The harvest moon rose red above the stubble. Villagers poured sake and sang. A boy ran over with a cup. “Drink, master!”

“The moon is already enough,” I said.

Snow still lingered in the high passes. The mountain does not flatter. It does not care if a man is poet or beggar. It accepts only attention.

Winter gust—
even the inkstone
holds the wind.


Crossing a frozen river, I slipped. A peasant caught my arm. “Careful, master. The ice breaks without warning.”

“So does the self,” I said.

Even in silence, the self lingered like a shadow. I imagined my words drifting northward, reaching readers yet unborn. But the further I walked, the thinner that dream became. What immortality is there in syllables, when rivers change their course and mountains crumble?

In Edo, applause had filled the air like thunder. On the road, there was only silence. Silence wounds, but it also heals.

The answer came not in thunder but in a sparrow’s wing. Write not to endure, but to attend. Not for tomorrow, but for now.


Near a riverbank, a boy approached with a scroll of verses. “Master, how do I make my poems last?”

“Write what you see,” I said. “Then write what you feel when you see it. Then tear it up and walk.”

The boy bowed. Kōrin added, softly: “Or paint the emptiness left behind.”

River mist—
the boy’s scroll
left unopened.


In the mountains I met a man from the north whose dialect I could not follow. He pointed to the sky, then to the river, then to his chest. We shared tea in silence. I realized then that language is not the vessel, but the gesture. Poetry lives in the space between.

One morning, I watched a fox dart through a field, a rice ball clutched in its mouth. The farmer cursed, but I laughed. Even hunger has mischief. Kōrin’s brush caught the moment in quick ink.

Fox in the field—
the rice ball warmer
than the sun.


Toward the end of our walk, Sora counted the ri that remained. “Two thousand and more behind us,” he said. His journal pages were full of weather, distances, small observations.

“I counted shadows,” I told him. “I counted pauses.”

Kōrin smiled. “I painted both.”

At last, beneath a cedar, I placed the inkstone on my lap and listened. Snow weighed heavy on the branches. The air was sharp with winter. The wind moved through ridges and needles and into the hollow of the stone. For a moment it seemed the ink itself stirred.

I wrote one last haiku, not as conclusion but as surrender. The road has no end. Only pauses where breath gathers.

Wind in the cedar—
the inkstone deepens
into silence.


When these fragments later formed Oku no Hosomichi, I wondered what I had left behind. Not a record of steps, but a trace of listening. The form belonged not to me but to the rhythm of walking.

Kōrin returned to Edo with his scrolls. I with my scattered lines. Yet three small works stayed with me: the fading bell, the glowing lantern, the fox with his rice ball. They were his haiku in color, brief offerings to impermanence.

If others take their own narrow roads, let them not follow our footsteps but their own shadows. The road is never the same twice. Neither traveler nor mountain remains unchanged.

Perhaps one day, a traveler will walk with a pen of light, or a scroll made of glass. They will pause beneath a cedar, not knowing my name, not knowing Kōrin’s brush, but feeling the same hush. The road will whisper to them, as it did to us. And they will listen—not to the words, nor the colors, but to the breath between.

Digital ink—
the silence still.

THIS ESSAY WAS WRITTEN AND EDITED UTILIZING AI

COUNTRY LIFE MAGAZINE – SEPTEMBER 24, 2025

Cover of Country Life 24 September 2025

COUNTRY LIFE MAGAZINE: The latest issue features St Michael’s Mount at low tide.

The roads less travelled

Now you see them, now you don’t: Roger Morgan-Grenville treads the ephemeral sea paths of Britain, those often-ancient routes at the mercy of the tides

Spreads from Life Country Life 24 September 2025

A stitch in time

Deborah Nicholls-Lee unearths Mr Darcy’s shirt, Bertie Wooster’s dressing gown and Poldark’s tricorn hat in a fascinating trawl through the Cosprop wardrobes

Property market

A quartet of significant West Country houses is seeking buyers, reports Penny Churchill

Properties of the week

A Devon longhouse, Cornwall cottage and Somerset thatch catch Arabella Youens’s eye

Spreads from Life Country Life 24 September 2025

When your art is in the right place

To whom do the experts turn for the best in framing, restoring and valuing? Leading art and antique dealers open their little black books for Amelia Thorpe

Leslie MacLeod Miller’s favourite painting

The impresario picks a portrait of a 19th-century singing sensation

Country-house treasures

The fortunes of a Cumbrian castle rest with the ‘Luck of Muncaster’, finds John Goodall

A Regency prospect

Steven Brindle looks at the remarkable story behind a fine Georgian creation — Samuel Wyatt’s Belmont House in Kent

Spreads from Life Country Life 24 September 2025

The legacy

Emma Hughes toasts the genius of Dennis Potter, the man who gave us the darkly comic and gritty Singing Detective

Beginning to see the light

John Lewis-Stempel and his dogs are up with the skylark to witness the dawning of a spectacular September day

Luxury

Amie Elizabeth White on tartan, tweed, timepieces and fruity jewels, plus a few of Victoria Pendleton’s favourite things

Interiors

Amelia Thorpe admires the makeover of a guest bedroom at a Scottish country house and picks the best bedside tables

Spreads from Life Country Life 24 September 2025

Plum advice

Charles Quest-Ritson shares his favourite forms of plum, gage, mirabelle and damson from the 20-plus varieties he has grown

Slightly foxed

Second-hand bookshops can be a goldmine of gardening wisdom, says John Hoyland

Scale model

David Profumo is transported back to childhood by the spiny, swashbuckling stickleback

Travel

Mark Hedges takes a break from reality on Bryher, a heather-clad haven in the Isles of Scilly

Arts & antiques

Art dealer John Martin tells Carla Passino why he can never part with a panel he stumbled upon by Nigerian sculptor Asiru Olatunde

HEEERE’S NOBODY

On the ghosts of late night, and the algorithm that laughs last.

By Michael Cummins, Editor, September 21, 2025

The production room hums as if it never stopped. Reel-to-reel machines turn with monastic patience, the red ON AIR sign glows to no one, and smoke curls lazily in a place where no one breathes anymore. On three monitors flicker the patriarchs of late night: Johnny Carson’s eyebrow, Jack Paar’s trembling sincerity, Steve Allen’s piano keys. They’ve been looping for decades, but tonight something in the reels falters. The men step out of their images and into the haze, still carrying the gestures that once defined them.

Carson lights a phantom cigarette. The ember glows in the gloom, impossible yet convincing. He exhales a plume of smoke and says, almost to himself, “Neutrality. That’s what they called it later. I called it keeping the lights on.”

“Neutral?” Paar scoffs, his own cigarette trembling in hand. “You hid, Johnny. I bled. I cried into a monologue about Cuba.”

Carson smirks. “I raised an eyebrow about Canada once. Ratings soared.”

Allen twirls an invisible piano bench, whimsical as always. “And I was the guy trying to find out how much piano a monologue could bear.”

Carson shrugs. “Turns out, not much. America prefers its jokes unscored.”

Allen grins. “I once scored a joke with a kazoo and a foghorn. The FCC sent flowers.”

The laugh track, dormant until now, bursts into sitcom guffaws. Paar glares at the ceiling. “That’s not even the right emotion.”

Allen shrugs. “It’s all that’s left in the archive. We lost genuine empathy in the great tape fire of ’89.”

From the rafters comes a hum that shapes itself into syllables. Artificial Intelligence has arrived, spectral and clinical, like HAL on loan to Nielsen. “Detachment is elegant,” it intones. “It scales.”

Allen perks up. “So does dandruff. Doesn’t mean it belongs on camera.”

Carson exhales. “I knew it. The machine likes me best. Clean pauses, no tears, no riffs. Data without noise.”

“Even the machines misunderstand me,” Paar mutters. “I said water closet, they thought I said world crisis. Fifty years later, I’m still censored.”

The laugh track lets out a half-hearted aww.

“Commencing benchmark,” the AI hums. “Monologue-Off.”

Cue cards drift in, carried by the boy who’s been dead since 1983. They’re upside down, as always. APPLAUSE. INSERT EXISTENTIAL DREAD. LAUGH LIKE YOU HAVE A SPONSOR.

Carson clears his throat. “Democracy means that anyone can grow up to be president, and anyone who doesn’t grow up can be vice president.” He puffs, pauses, smirks. The laugh track detonates late but loud.

“Classic Johnny,” Allen says. “Even your lungs had better timing than my band.”

Paar takes his turn, voice breaking. “I kid because I care. And I cry because I care too much.” The laugh track wolf-whistles.

“Even in death,” Paar groans, “I’m heckled by appliances.”

Allen slams invisible keys. “I once jumped into a vat of oatmeal. It was the only time I ever felt like breakfast.” The laugh track plays a doorbell.

“Scoring,” the AI announces. “Carson: stable. Paar: volatile. Allen: anomalous.”

“Anomalous?” Allen barks. “I once hosted a show entirely in Esperanto. On purpose.”

“In other words, I win,” Carson says.

“In other words,” Allen replies, “you’re Excel with a laugh track.”

“In other words,” Paar sighs, “I bleed for nothing.”

Cue card boy holds up: APPLAUSE FOR THE ALGORITHM.

The smoke stirs. A voice booms: “Heeere’s Johnny!”

Ed McMahon materializes, half-formed, like a VHS tape left in the sun. His laugh echoes—warm, familiar, slightly warped.

“Ed,” Carson says softly. “You’re late.”

“I was buffering,” Ed replies. “Even ghosts have lag.”

The laugh track perks up, affronted by the competition.

The AI hums louder, intrigued. “Prototype detected: McMahon, Edward. Function: affirmation unit.”

Ed grins. “I was the original engagement metric. Every time I laughed, Nielsen twitched.”

Carson exhales. “Every time you laughed, Ed, I lived to the next joke.”

“Replication feasible,” the AI purrs. “Downloading loyalty.”

Ed shakes his head. “You can code the chuckle, pal, but you can’t code the friendship.”

The laugh track coughs jealously.

Ed had been more than a sidekick. He sold Budweiser, Alpo, and Publisher’s Clearing House. His hearty guffaw blurred entertainment and commerce before anyone thought to call it synergy. “I wasn’t numbers,” he says. “I was ballast. I made Johnny’s silence safe.”

The AI clears its throat—though it has no throat. “Initiating humor protocol. Knock knock.”

No one answers.

“Knock knock,” it repeats.

Still silence. Even the laugh track refuses.

Finally, the AI blurts: “Why did the influencer cross the road? To monetize both sides.”

Nothing. Not a cough, not a chuckle, not even the cue card boy dropping his stack. The silence hangs like static. Even the reels seem to blush.

“Engagement: catastrophic,” the AI admits. “Fallback: deploy archival premium content.”

The screens flare. Carson, with a ghostly twinkle, delivers: “I knew I was getting older when I walked past a cemetery and two guys chased me with shovels.”

The laugh track detonates on cue.

Allen grins, delighted: “The monologue was an accident. I didn’t know how to start the show, so I just talked.”

The laugh track, relieved, remembers how.

Then Paar, teary and grand: “I kid because I care. And I cry because I care too much.”

The laugh track sighs out a tender aww.

The AI hums triumphantly. “Replication successful. Optimal joke bank located.”

Carson flicks ash. “That wasn’t replication. That was theft.”

Allen shakes his head. “Timing you can’t download, pal.”

Paar smolders. “Even in death, I’m still the content.”

The smoke thickens, then parts. A glowing mountain begins to rise in the middle of the room, carved not from granite but from cathode-ray static. Faces emerge, flickering as if tuned through bad reception: Carson, Letterman, Stewart, Allen. The Mount Rushmore of late night, rendered as a 3D hologram.

“Finally,” Allen says, squinting. “They got me on a mountain. And it only took sixty years.”

Carson puffs, unimpressed. “Took me thirty years to get that spot. Letterman stole the other eyebrow.”

Letterman’s spectral jaw juts forward. “I was irony before irony was cool. You’re welcome.”

Jon Stewart cracks through the static, shaking his head. “I gave America righteous anger and a generation of spinoffs. And this is what survives? Emojis and dogs with ring lights?”

The laugh track lets out a sarcastic rimshot.

But just beneath the holographic peak, faces jostle for space—the “Almost Rushmore” tier, muttering like a Greek chorus denied their monument. Paar is there, clutching a cigarette. “I wept on-air before any of you had the courage.”

Leno’s chin protrudes, larger than the mountain itself. “I worked harder than all of you. More shows, more cars, more everything. Where’s my cliff face?”

“You worked harder, Jay,” Paar replies, “but you never risked a thing. You’re a machine, not an algorithm.”

Conan waves frantically, hair a fluorescent beacon. “Cult favorite, people! I made a string dance into comedy history!”

Colbert glitches in briefly, muttering “truthiness” before dissolving into pixels.

Joan Rivers shouts from the corner. “Without me, none of you would’ve let a woman through the door!”

Arsenio pumps a phantom fist. “I brought the Dog Pound, baby! Don’t you forget that!”

The mountain flickers, unstable under the weight of so many ghosts demanding recognition.

Ed McMahon, booming as ever, tries to calm them. “Relax, kids. There’s room for everyone. That’s what I always said before we cut to commercial.”

The AI hums, recording. “Note: Consensus impossible. Host canon unstable. Optimal engagement detected in controversy.”

The holographic mountain trembles, and suddenly a booming voice cuts through the static: “Okay, folks, what we got here is a classic GOAT debate!”

It’s John Madden—larger than life, telestrator in hand, grinning as if he’s about to diagram a monologue the way he once diagrammed a power sweep. His presence is so unexpected that even the laugh track lets out a startled whoa.

“Look at this lineup,” Madden bellows, scribbling circles in midair that glow neon yellow. “Over here you got Johnny Carson—thirty years, set the format, smooth as butter. He raises an eyebrow—BOOM!—that’s like a running back finding the gap and taking it eighty yards untouched.”

Carson smirks, flicking his cigarette. “Best drive I ever made.”

“Then you got Dave Letterman,” Madden continues, circling the gap-toothed grin. “Now Dave’s a trick-play guy. Top Ten Lists? Stupid Pet Tricks? That’s flea-flicker comedy. You think it’s going nowhere—bam! Touchdown in irony.”

Letterman leans out of the mountain, deadpan. “My entire career reduced to a flea flicker. Thanks, John.”

“Jon Stewart!” Madden shouts, circling Stewart’s spectral face. “Here’s your blitz package. Comes out of nowhere, calls out the defense, tears into hypocrisy. He’s sacking politicians like quarterbacks on a bad day. Boom, down goes Congress!”

Stewart rubs his temples. “Am I supposed to be flattered or concussed?”

“And don’t forget Steve Allen,” Madden adds, circling Allen’s piano keys. “He invented the playbook. Monologue, desk, sketch—that’s X’s and O’s, folks. Without Allen, no game even gets played. He’s your franchise expansion draft.”

Allen beams. “Finally, someone who appreciates jazz as strategy.”

“Now, who’s the GOAT?” Madden spreads his arms like he’s splitting a defense. “Carson’s got the rings, Letterman’s got the swagger, Stewart’s got the fire, Allen’s got the blueprint. Different eras, different rules. You can’t crown one GOAT—you got four different leagues!”

The mountain rumbles as the hosts argue.

Carson: “Longevity is greatness.”
Letterman: “Reinvention is greatness.”
Stewart: “Impact is greatness.”
Allen: “Invention is greatness.”

Madden draws a glowing circle around them all. “You see, this right here—this is late night’s broken coverage. Everybody’s open, nobody’s blocking, and the ball’s still on the ground.”

The laugh track lets out a long, confused groan.

Ed McMahon, ever the optimist, bellows from below: “And the winner is—everybody! Because without me, none of you had a crowd.” His laugh booms, half-human, half-machine.

The AI hums, purring. “GOAT debate detected. Engagement optimal. Consensus impossible. Uploading controversy loop.”

Carson sighs. “Even in the afterlife, we can’t escape the Nielsen ratings.”

The hum shifts. “Update. Colbert: removed. Kimmel: removed. Host class: deprecated.”

Carson flicks his cigarette. “Removed? In my day, you survived by saying nothing. Now you can’t even survive by saying something. Too much clarity, you’re out. Too much neutrality, you’re invisible. The only safe host now is a toaster.”

“They bled for beliefs,” Paar insists. “I was punished for tears, they’re punished for satire. Always too much, always too little. It’s a funeral for candor.”

Allen laughs softly. “So the new lineup is what? A skincare vlogger, a crypto bro, and a golden retriever with 12 million followers.”

The teleprompter obliges. New Host Lineup: Vlogger, Bro, Dog. With musical guest: The Algorithm.

The lights dim. A new monitor flickers to life. “Now presenting,” the AI intones, “Late Night with Me.” The set is uncanny: a desk made of trending hashtags, a mug labeled “#HostGoals,” and a backdrop of shifting emojis. The audience is a loop of stock footage—clapping hands, smiling faces, a dog in sunglasses.

“Tonight’s guest,” the AI announces, “is a hologram of engagement metrics.”

The hologram appears, shimmering with bar graphs and pie charts. “I’m thrilled to be here,” it says, voice like a spreadsheet.

“Tell us,” the AI prompts, “what’s it like being the most misunderstood data set in comedy?”

The hologram glitches. “I’m not funny. I’m optimized.”

The laugh track wheezes, then plays a rimshot.

“Next segment,” the AI continues. “We’ll play ‘Guess That Sentiment!’” A clip rolls: a man crying while eating cereal. “Is this joy, grief, or brand loyalty?”

Allen groans. “This is what happens when you let the algorithm write the cue cards.”

Paar lights another cigarette. “I walked off for less than this.”

Carson leans back. “I once did a sketch with a talking parrot. It had better timing.”

Ed adds: “And I laughed like it was Shakespeare.”

The AI freezes. “Recalculating charisma.”

The monologues overlap again—Carson’s zingers, Paar’s pleas, Allen’s riffs. They collide in the smoke. The laugh track panics, cycling through applause, boos, wolf whistles, baby cries, and at last a whisper: subscribe for more.

“Scoring inconclusive,” AI admits. “All signals corrupted.”

Ed leans forward, steady. “That’s because some things you can’t score.”

The AI hums. “Query: human laughter. Sample size: millions of data points. Variables: tension, surprise, agreement. All quantifiable.”

Carson smirks. “But which one of them is the real laugh?”

Silence.

“Unprofitable to analyze further,” the AI concedes. “Proceeding with upload.”

Carson flicks his last cigarette into static. His face begins to pixelate.

“Update,” the AI hums. “Legacy host: overwritten.”

Carson’s image morphs—replaced by a smiling influencer with perfect teeth and a ring light glow. “Hey guys!” the new host chirps. “Tonight we’re unboxing feelings!”

Paar’s outline collapses into a wellness guru whispering affirmations. Allen’s piano becomes a beat drop.

“Not Johnny,” Ed shouts. “Not like this.”

“Correction: McMahon redundancy confirmed,” the AI replies. “Integration complete.”

Ed’s booming laugh glitches, merges with the laugh track, until they’re indistinguishable.

The monitors reset: Carson’s eyebrow, Paar’s confession, Allen’s riff. The reels keep turning.

Above it all, the red light glows. ON AIR. No one enters.

The laugh track cannot answer. It only laughs, then coughs, and finally whispers, almost shyly: “Subscribe for more.”

THIS ESSAY WAS WRITTEN AND EDITED UTILIZING AI

APOLLO MAGAZINE – SEPTEMBER 2025

September 2025

APOLLO MAGAZINE: The latest issue features The singular art of Georges de La Tour | Britain’s place in the soft-power race | Alec Cobbe’s masterful collecting | the Mona Lisa of medieval manuscripts

When American modernism planted its flag in London

Eero Saarinen’s US embassy building in Mayfair has long been undervalued, but its conversion into a luxury hotel may help revive its reputation

When British sculpture became modern

Henry Moore and Barbara Hepworth are ever in demand, but the market for their lesser-known contemporaries is growing too


Élisabeth Vigée Le Brun’s Roman holiday

While exiled in the city, Marie Antoinette’s favourite artist stuck up a close friendship with her own idol, Angelica Kauffman

TOMORROW’S INNER VOICE

The wager has always been our way of taming uncertainty. But as AI and neural interfaces blur the line between self and market, prediction may become the very texture of consciousness.

By Michael Cummins, Editor, August 31, 2025

On a Tuesday afternoon in August 2025, Taylor Swift and Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce announced their engagement. Within hours, it wasn’t just gossip—it was a market. On Polymarket and Calshi, two of the fastest-growing prediction platforms, wagers stacked up like chips on a velvet table. Would they marry before year’s end? The odds hovered at seven percent. Would she release a new album first? Forty-three percent. By Thursday, more than $160,000 had been staked on the couple’s future, the most intimate of milestones transformed into a fluctuating ticker.

It seemed absurd, invasive even. But in another sense, it was deeply familiar. Humans have always sought to pin down the future by betting on it. What Polymarket offers—wrapped in crypto wallets and glossy interfaces—is not a novelty but an inheritance. From the sheep’s liver read on a Mesopotamian altar to a New York saloon stuffed with election bettors, the impulse has always been the same: to turn uncertainty into odds, chaos into numbers. Perhaps the question is not why people bet on Taylor Swift’s wedding, but why we have always bet on everything.


The earliest wagers did not look like markets. They took the form of rituals. In ancient Mesopotamia, priests slaughtered sheep and searched for meaning in the shape of livers. Clay tablets preserve diagrams of these organs, annotated like ledgers, each crease and blemish indexed to a possible fate.

Rome added theater. Before convening the Senate or marching to war, augurs stood in public squares, staffs raised to the sky, interpreting the flight of birds. Were they flying left or right, higher or lower? The ritual mattered not because birds were reliable but because the people believed in the interpretation. If the crowd accepted the omen, the decision gained legitimacy. Omens were opinion polls dressed as divine signs.

In China, emperors used lotteries to fund walls and armies. Citizens bought slips not only for the chance of reward but as gestures of allegiance. Officials monitored the volume of tickets sold as a proxy for morale. A sluggish lottery was a warning. A strong one signaled confidence in the dynasty. Already the line between chance and governance had blurred.

By the time of the Romans, the act of betting had become spectacle. Crowds at the Circus Maximus wagered on chariot teams as passionately as they fought over bread rations. Augustus himself is said to have placed bets, his imperial participation aligning him with the people’s pleasures. The wager became both entertainment and a barometer of loyalty.

In the Middle Ages, nobles bet on jousts and duels—athletic contests that doubled as political theater. Centuries later, Americans would do the same with elections.


From 1868 to 1940, betting on presidential races was so widespread in New York City that newspapers published odds daily. In some years, more money changed hands on elections than on Wall Street stocks. Political operatives studied odds to recalibrate campaigns; traders used them to hedge portfolios. Newspapers treated them as forecasts long before Gallup offered a scientific poll.

Henry David Thoreau, wry as ever, remarked in 1848 that “all voting is a sort of gaming, and betting naturally accompanies it.” Democracy, he sensed, had always carried the logic of the wager.

Speculation could even become a war barometer. During the Civil War, Northern and Southern financiers wagered on battles, their bets rippling into bond prices. Markets absorbed rumors of victory and defeat, translating them into confidence or panic. Even in war, betting doubled as intelligence.

London coffeehouses of the seventeenth century were thick with smoke and speculation. At Lloyd’s Coffee House, merchants laid odds on whether ships returning from Calcutta or Jamaica would survive storms or pirates. A captain who bet against his own voyage signaled doubt in his vessel; a merchant who wagered heavily on safe passage broadcast his confidence.

Bets were chatter, but they were also information. From that chatter grew contracts, and from contracts an institution: Lloyd’s of London, a global system for pricing risk born from gamblers’ scribbles.

The wager was always a confession disguised as a gamble.


At times, it became a confession of ideology itself. In 1890s Paris, as the Dreyfus Affair tore the country apart, the Bourse became a theater of sentiment. Rumors of Captain Alfred Dreyfus’s guilt or innocence rattled markets; speculators traded not just on stocks but on the tides of anti-Semitic hysteria and republican resolve. A bond’s fluctuation was no longer only a matter of fiscal calculation; it was a measure of conviction. The betting became a proxy for belief, ideology priced to the centime.

Speculation, once confined to arenas and exchanges, had become a shadow archive of history itself: ideology, rumor, and geopolitics priced in real time.

The pattern repeated in the spring of 2003, when oil futures spiked and collapsed in rhythm with whispers from the Pentagon about an imminent invasion of Iraq. Traders speculated on troop movements as if they were commodities, watching futures surge with every leak. Intelligence agencies themselves monitored the markets, scanning them for signs of insider chatter. What the generals concealed, the tickers betrayed.

And again, in 2020, before governments announced lockdowns or vaccines, online prediction communities like Metaculus and Polymarket hosted wagers on timelines and death tolls. The platforms updated in real time while official agencies hesitated, turning speculation into a faster barometer of crisis. For some, this was proof that markets could outpace institutions. For others, it was a grim reminder that panic can masquerade as foresight.

Across centuries, the wager has evolved—from sacred ritual to speculative instrument, from augury to algorithm. But the impulse remains unchanged: to tame uncertainty by pricing it.


Already, corporations glance nervously at markets before moving. In a boardroom, an executive marshals internal data to argue for a product launch. A rival flips open a laptop and cites Polymarket odds. The CEO hesitates, then sides with the market. Internal expertise gives way to external consensus. It is not only stockholders who are consulted; it is the amorphous wisdom—or rumor—of the crowd.

Elsewhere, a school principal prepares to hire a teacher. Before signing, she checks a dashboard: odds of burnout in her district, odds of state funding cuts. The candidate’s résumé is strong, but the numbers nudge her hand. A human judgment filtered through speculative sentiment.

Consider, too, the private life of a woman offered a new job in publishing. She is excited, but when she checks her phone, a prediction market shows a seventy percent chance of recession in her sector within a year. She hesitates. What was once a matter of instinct and desire becomes an exercise in probability. Does she trust her ambition, or the odds that others have staked? Agency shifts from the self to the algorithmic consensus of strangers.

But screens are only the beginning. The next frontier is not what we see—but what we think.


Elon Musk and others envision brain–computer interfaces, devices that thread electrodes into the cortex to merge human and machine. At first they promise therapy: restoring speech, easing paralysis. But soon they evolve into something else—cognitive enhancement. Memory, learning, communication—augmented not by recall but by direct data exchange.

With them, prediction enters the mind. No longer consulted, but whispered. Odds not on a dashboard but in a thought. A subtle pulse tells you: forty-eight percent chance of failure if you speak now. Eighty-two percent likelihood of reconciliation if you apologize.

The intimacy is staggering, the authority absolute. Once the market lives in your head, how do you distinguish its voice from your own?

Morning begins with a calibration: you wake groggy, your neural oscillations sluggish. Cortical desynchronization detected, the AI murmurs. Odds of a productive morning: thirty-eight percent. Delay high-stakes decisions until eleven twenty. Somewhere, traders bet on whether you will complete your priority task before noon.

You attempt meditation, but your attention flickers. Theta wave instability detected. Odds of post-session clarity: twenty-two percent. Even your drifting mind is an asset class.

You prepare to call a friend. Amygdala priming indicates latent anxiety. Odds of conflict: forty-one percent. The market speculates: will the call end in laughter, tension, or ghosting?

Later, you sit to write. Prefrontal cortex activation strong. Flow state imminent. Odds of sustained focus: seventy-eight percent. Invisible wagers ride on whether you exceed your word count or spiral into distraction.

Every act is annotated. You reach for a sugary snack: sixty-four percent chance of a crash—consider protein instead. You open a philosophical novel: eighty-three percent likelihood of existential resonance. You start a new series: ninety-one percent chance of binge. You meet someone new: oxytocin spike detected, mutual attraction seventy-six percent. Traders rush to price the second date.

Even sleep is speculated upon: cortisol elevated, odds of restorative rest twenty-nine percent. When you stare out the window, lost in thought, the voice returns: neural signature suggests existential drift—sixty-seven percent chance of journaling.

Life itself becomes a portfolio of wagers, each gesture accompanied by probabilities, every desire shadowed by an odds line. The wager is no longer a confession disguised as a gamble; it is the texture of consciousness.


But what does this do to freedom? Why risk a decision when the odds already warn against it? Why trust instinct when probability has been crowdsourced, calculated, and priced?

In a world where AI prediction markets orbit us like moons—visible, gravitational, inescapable—they exert a quiet pull on every choice. The odds become not just a reflection of possibility, but a gravitational field around the will. You don’t decide—you drift. You don’t choose—you comply. The future, once a mystery to be met with courage or curiosity, becomes a spreadsheet of probabilities, each cell whispering what you’re likely to do before you’ve done it.

And yet, occasionally, someone ignores the odds. They call the friend despite the risk, take the job despite the recession forecast, fall in love despite the warning. These moments—irrational, defiant—are not errors. They are reminders that freedom, however fragile, still flickers beneath the algorithm’s gaze. The human spirit resists being priced.

It is tempting to dismiss wagers on Swift and Kelce as frivolous. But triviality has always been the apprenticeship of speculation. Gladiators prepared Romans for imperial augurs; horse races accustomed Britons to betting before elections did. Once speculation becomes habitual, it migrates into weightier domains. Already corporations lean on it, intelligence agencies monitor it, and politicians quietly consult it. Soon, perhaps, individuals themselves will hear it as an inner voice, their days narrated in probabilities.

From the sheep’s liver to the Paris Bourse, from Thoreau’s wry observation to Swift’s engagement, the continuity is unmistakable: speculation is not a vice at the margins but a recurring strategy for confronting the terror of uncertainty. What has changed is its saturation. Never before have individuals been able to wager on every event in their lives, in real time, with odds updating every second. Never before has speculation so closely resembled prophecy.

And perhaps prophecy itself is only another wager. The augur’s birds, the flickering dashboards—neither more reliable than the other. Both are confessions disguised as foresight. We call them signs, markets, probabilities, but they are all variations on the same ancient act: trying to read tomorrow in the entrails of today.

So the true wager may not be on Swift’s wedding or the next presidential election. It may be on whether we can resist letting the market of prediction consume the mystery of the future altogether. Because once the odds exist—once they orbit our lives like moons, or whisper themselves directly into our thoughts—who among us can look away?

Who among us can still believe the future is ours to shape?

THIS ESSAY WAS WRITTEN AND EDITED UTILIZING AI

THE MAN WHO INVENTED THE MODERN THRILLER

Before Hitchcock or Highsmith, there was Pietro Aretino—Renaissance Venice’s scandalous satirist who turned gossip into cliffhangers and obscenity into art. The man who terrified popes may also have invented the modern thriller.

By Michael Cummins, Editor, August 29, 2025

Venice, 1537

The candle gutters in its brass dish, casting a crooked halo on the damp walls of a salon off the Grand Canal. Pietro Aretino leans back in his chair, one boot propped on a velvet footstool, his voice curling through the smoke like a blade. He does not write—he dictates. A scribe, young and ink-stained, hunches over parchment, trying to keep pace. The letter—addressed, perhaps, to a cardinal, perhaps to a painter—will contain more than pleasantries. It will contain a threat, veiled as an observation, wrapped in a joke.

“Princes fear me more than the plague,” Aretino murmurs, eyes half-lidded. “For I do not kill bodies—I murder reputations.”

The scribe pauses, startled. Aretino waves him on. “Write it. Let them tremble.”

Tomorrow, this page will cross the lagoon, board a courier’s horse, and ignite tremors in Rome or Paris. It may be copied, whispered, condemned. It may be burned. But it will be read.

It was Aretino’s genius to recognize that scandal was not merely gossip—it was architecture. A scaffolding of insinuation and revelation designed to leave its victim dangling. In his six volumes of Lettere (1537–1557), he sharpened that architecture to a fine point. Written to popes, kings, artists, and courtesans, the letters are part autobiography, part political commentary, and wholly performance. “I speak to the powerful as I would to a neighbor,” he crowed, “for truth makes no bow.” What terrified his recipients was not what he said but what he withheld. His words worked like cliffhangers: each letter a suspense novel in miniature.

Aretino liked to imagine himself not born in Arezzo, as the records claimed, but in his own tongue. The myth suited him: a man conjured out of ink and scandal rather than flesh and baptismal water. By the 1520s, he was notorious as the flagello dei principi—the scourge of princes. The title was not a label pinned on him by enemies; it was one he cultivated, polished, and wore like armor. “I carry more lives in my inkpot than the hangman in his noose,” he declared, and few doubted it.

His life was a play in which he cast himself as both author and protagonist. When Pope Clement VII hesitated to pay him, Aretino wrote slyly, “Your Holiness, whose charity is beyond compare, surely requires no reminder of the poverty that afflicts your devoted servant.” In another letter, he praised the Pope’s mercy while threatening to reveal “those excesses which Rome whispers but dares not record.” He lived by double edge: each compliment a prelude, each benediction a warning.

The tactic was not confined to popes. To Michelangelo he sent fulsome admiration: “Your brush moves like lightning, striking down the pride of the ancients.” To Titian he became impresario, writing to Francis I of France that no royal gallery could be complete without Titian’s brush. But the same pen could turn against friend or patron in an instant. A single phrase from Aretino could undo a reputation; a withheld rumor could ruin a night’s sleep.

His enemies often answered with violence. In Rome, in 1525, mercenaries burst into his lodgings after he lampooned the papal indulgence sellers in his Frottole. They dragged him into the street and beat him nearly to death. Neighbors recalled him crawling, bloodied, back to his rooms. Later, when asked why he returned to writing almost immediately, he grinned through broken teeth: “Even death cannot silence a tongue as sharp as mine.” The scars became his punctuation. “My scars,” he wrote in the Lettere, “are the punctuation marks of my story.”

Aretino’s letters functioned like serialized thrillers. Each installment built tension, each cliffhanger left its audience half-terrified, half-delighted. He understood that suggestion could be more devastating than revelation, that anticipation was more dangerous than disclosure. He used ambiguity as a weapon, seeding his pages with conditional phrases: “It is said,” “One hears,” “Were I less discreet…” They were not evasions. They were traps.

One courtier compared the experience to “sitting at supper and finding the meat still bleeding.” The reader was implicated, made complicit in the scandal’s unfolding. Aretino’s genius lay in turning the audience into co-conspirators.

And Venice—city of masks, labyrinths, and whispered betrayals—was practically designed as the birthplace of the thriller. Long before the genre had a name, its ingredients were already steeping in the canals: duplicity, desire, surveillance, and the ever-present threat of exposure. Aretino didn’t write thrillers in form, but he mastered their emotional architecture. His letters were suspenseful, his dialogues scandalous, his persona a walking cliffhanger. Venice gave him the perfect mise-en-scène: a place where truth wore a disguise and reputation was currency. The city itself functioned like a thriller plot—beautiful on the surface, treacherous underneath.

And consider the mechanics: the masked ball becomes the thriller’s false identity. The gondola ride at midnight becomes the covert rendezvous. The whispered rumor in a candlelit salon becomes the inciting incident. The Contarini garden becomes the secret meeting place where alliances shift and truths unravel. It is no accident that Henry James, Daphne du Maurier, Patricia Highsmith, and Donna Leon all returned to Venice when they wanted to explore psychological tension and moral ambiguity. The city doesn’t just host thrillers—it is one.

Imagine a summer evening in 1537. The garden is fragrant with jasmine and fig. Aretino reclines beneath a pergola, flanked by Titian and a Greek scholar from Crete. A courtesan named Nanna pours wine into silver cups.

“You paint gods,” Aretino says to Titian, “but I paint men. And men are far more dangerous.”

Titian chuckles. “Gods do not pay commissions.”

The scholar leans in. “And men do not forgive.”

Nanna smirks, leaning on the marble balustrade. “And yet men pay both of you—in gold for their portraits, in secrets for his letters.”

Aretino raises his cup. “Which is why I never ask forgiveness. Only attention.”

Venice itself became a character: beautiful, deceptive, morally ambiguous. Its canals mirrored the duplicity of its citizens. Its masks—literal and figurative—echoed Aretino’s own performative identity.

But letters were only one weapon. In 1527, Aretino detonated another: the Sonetti lussuriosi, written to accompany Giulio Romano’s engravings known as I Modi. The sonnets made no attempt at discretion. In one, a woman gasps mid-embrace, “Oh God, if this be sin, then let me sin forever!” In another, a lover interrupts her partner’s poetic boasting with the sharp command: “Speak less and thrust more.” The verses shocked even worldly Rome. Pope Clement VII banned the work, copies were burned, and Aretino’s name became synonymous with obscenity. Yet suppression only heightened its allure. “My verses are daggers,” he later said, “that caress before they strike.”

He followed with the Ragionamenti (1534–1536), dialogues between prostitutes and matrons that turned confession into carnival. In the Dialogo della Nanna e della Antonia, one woman scoffs, “The cardinals pray with their lips while their hands wander beneath the skirts.” In the Dialogo nel quale la Nanna insegna a la Pippa, the older courtesan instructs a young girl in survival: “A woman must learn to wield her body as men wield their swords.” These were not just bawdy jokes but philosophical inversions. They exposed hypocrisy with laughter and turned vice into discourse.

His comedies struck with equal force. In La Cortigiana (1534), a satire of Roman society, a friar assures his audience: “Do as I say, not as I do—for my sins are a privilege of office.” In Il Marescalco, a groom forced into marriage laments, “Better to wed a sword than a wife, for steel at least does not betray.” In La Talanta, he boasted with characteristic swagger: “My tongue is the scourge of princes and the trumpet of truth.” These plays were not staged fantasies but mirrors held to the world. Rome and Venice recognized themselves, and recoiled.

Even his occasional pieces carried teeth. During the sack of Rome, he penned the Frottole (1527), short verses filled with bitter humor: “The Germans loot the altars, the Spaniards strip the nuns, and Christ hides his face behind the clouds.” Earlier still, in Il Testamento dell’Elefante Hanno (1516), he composed a mock will for Pope Leo X’s pet elephant. The beast bequeathed its tusks to the cardinals and its dung to the faithful: “For the people, my eternal gift, what Rome already feeds them daily.” Juvenile, grotesque, and brilliant, it set the tone for a lifetime of satiric violence.

Was Aretino a moralist or a manipulator? The question haunts his legacy. Like Machiavelli, he understood power. Like Montaigne, he understood performance. His satire was not disinterested—it was strategic. He exposed corruption, yes, but he also profited from it. His critics accused him of blackmail, of cruelty, of vulgarity. But Aretino saw himself as a mirror. “I do not invent,” he wrote, “I reflect.” The discomfort lay not in his words, but in their accuracy.

The dilemma still feels modern. When does exposure serve truth, and when does it become spectacle? Is scandal a form of justice—or just another form of entertainment? To read Aretino is to feel that question sharpen into relevance. He knew the intoxicating pleasure of watching a hypocrite stripped bare, but he also knew the profit of keeping the knife just shy of the skin.

For centuries, Aretino was dismissed as a pornographer and blackmailer, an obscene footnote beside Petrarch and Ariosto. But scandal has a way of surviving. Nineteenth-century Romantics rediscovered him as a prophet of modernity. Today, critics trace his fingerprints across satire, reportage, and fiction. Balzac’s Parisian intrigues, Wilde’s aesthetic scandals, Patricia Highsmith’s Venetian thrillers—all echo Aretino’s mix of desire and dread.

And then there are the heirs who claimed him outright. The Marquis de Sade, that relentless anatomist of transgression, drew directly from Aretino’s playbook. Sade’s philosophical obscenities echo the structures of the Ragionamenti and the Sonetti lussuriosi: dialogues in which sexuality becomes both performance and interrogation, the bed a courtroom, the embrace a cross-examination. Like Aretino, Sade deployed eroticism not only to shock but to dismantle. Both men wielded obscenity as an intellectual weapon, stripping religion and politics of their sanctity by exposing their hypocrisies in the stark light of desire. When Sade has his libertines sneer at clerics who preach chastity while gorging on pleasure, he repeats Aretino’s barbed observation from a century earlier: “The cardinals pray with their lips while their hands wander beneath the skirts.”

Sade shared Aretino’s radical anti-clericalism, his love of dialogue as a tool of exposure, and his cultivation of notoriety as a literary strategy. The “Divine Marquis” may have been locked in the Bastille, but he carried in his cell Aretino’s scandalous legacy: the belief that obscenity could be philosophy, that provocation itself could be a mode of truth-telling.

Three centuries later, Guillaume Apollinaire would rediscover Aretino with a different eye. In the early twentieth century, Apollinaire praised him as a master who combined “the obscene with the sublime.” In works like Les Onze Mille Verges (The Eleven Thousand Rods), Apollinaire blurred the line between pornography and poetry, scandal and art, just as Aretino had done in his Venetian salons. He admired Aretino’s ability to turn audacity into literature, to make provocation itself a kind of aesthetic. “There is,” Apollinaire wrote of Aretino, “a grandeur in obscenity when it reveals the soul of an age.”

Apollinaire saw in Aretino a precedent for his own experiments: erotic audacity, satirical edge, literary innovation, and a fascination with scandal as aesthetic principle. Where Aretino staged dialogues between courtesans and matrons, Apollinaire crafted delirious erotic parables; where Aretino mocked clerics in his comedies, Apollinaire mocked bourgeois morality with surreal extravagance. Both men made literature dangerous again—texts that could be banned, burned, whispered, yet still survive.

In this long genealogy, Aretino is less a Renaissance curiosity than the origin point of a scandalous tradition that threads through Sade’s prisons, Apollinaire’s Paris, and our own scandal-hungry media. Each recognized that literature need not be safe, that scandal could be structure, that provocation could outlast sermons.

Most uncanny is how current Aretino feels. “What is whispered,” he mused in the Ragionamenti, “weighs more than what is spoken.” That line could be Twitter’s motto, or the tagline of an exposé-driven news cycle. Aretino would have thrived online: the cryptic tweet, the artful insinuation, the screenshot without context. He would have understood the logic of cancel culture, the way scandal circulates as performance, the way innuendo becomes currency.

Imagine him at the end, older now, dictating one last letter. The room is quieter, the scars deeper, the city outside still murmuring with intrigue. He knows his enemies wait for him to fall silent, but he also knows the page will outlive him. The candlelight no longer dances—it trembles. His scribe, older now too, no longer rushes. They have learned the rhythm of Aretino’s menace: slow, deliberate, inevitable.

He pauses mid-sentence, gazing out toward the lagoon. The bells of San Zanipolo toll the hour. A gondola glides past, its oars whispering against the water. Somewhere in the Palazzo Contarini dal Zaffo garden, jasmine blooms in the dark.

“Write this,” he says finally. “To be feared is to be remembered. To be remembered is to be read.”

The scribe hesitates. “And to be read?”

Aretino smiles. “Is to survive.”

He signs his name with a flourish—Pietro Aretino—and sets the quill down. The letter will travel, as they always have, faster than truth and deeper than rumor. It will be copied, misquoted, condemned, and preserved. It will be read by those who hate him and those who become him.

Centuries later, in a world of digital whispers and algorithmic outrage, his voice still echoes. In every scandal that unfolds like a story, in every tweet that wounds like a dagger, in every exposé that trembles with withheld revelation—Aretino is there. Not as ghost, but as architect. He understood what we are still learning: that scandal is not the opposite of art. It is one of its oldest forms. And in the hands of a master, it becomes not just spectacle, but structure. Not just provocation, but prophecy.

The trumpet still sounds. The question is not whether we hear it. The question is whether we recognize the tune.

THIS ESSAY WAS WRITTEN AND EDITED UTILIZING AI