Ordinarily a football World Cup would be a moment for celebration,a time to savour sport’s power to unite nations and a glorious distraction from the problems of the day. Not this time: the 2022 tournament has been mired in controversy since it was awarded to Qatar 12 years ago.
Another dubious global milestone was reached this weekas the world’s population passed 8 billion, according to UN estimates. In a the first of a series of dispatches from the frontline of population growth, Hannah Ellis-Petersen reports from India, which next year will overtake China as the planet’s most populous nation, on what the shift means for the world.
The US midterm elections saw the Democrats fare better than expected, retaining control of the Senate despite looking likely to lose control of the House by a small margin to the Republicans. The more consequential outcome may be for Donald Trump: Chris McGreal and David Smith ask if the former president’s grip on the GOP is weakening, and if his rival Ron DeSantis’s time may be coming.
We report on Donald Trump’s 2024 presidential bid. Plus we bring the latest from Kyiv following a wave of Russian missile attacks across Ukraine, the world population hits 8 billion, and the latest business news.
A letter from Tom Standage, editor of “The World Ahead 2023”
1. All eyes on Ukraine. Energy prices, inflation, interest rates, economic growth, food shortages—all depend on how the conflict plays out in the coming months. Rapid progress by Ukraine could threaten Vladimir Putin, but a grinding stalemate seems the most likely outcome. Russia will try to string out the conflict in the hope that energy shortages, and political shifts in America, will undermine Western support for Ukraine.
2. Recessions loom. Major economies will go into recession as central banks raise interest rates to stifle inflation, an after-effect of the pandemic since inflamed by high energy prices. America’s recession should be relatively mild; Europe’s will be more brutal. The pain will be global as the strong dollar hurts poor countries already hit by soaring food prices.
3. Climate silver lining. As countries rush to secure their energy supplies, they are turning back to dirty fossil fuels. But in the medium term the war will accelerate the switch to renewables as a safer alternative to hydrocarbons supplied by autocrats. As well as wind and solar, nuclear and hydrogen will benefit too.
4. Peak China? Some time in April China’s population will be overtaken by India’s, at around 1.43bn. With China’s population in decline, and its economy facing headwinds, expect much discussion of whether China has peaked. Slower growth means its economy may never overtake America’s in size.
5. Divided America. Although Republicans did worse than expected in the midterm elections, social and cultural divides on abortion, guns and other hot-button issues continue to widen after a string of contentious Supreme Court rulings. Donald Trump’s formal entry into the 2024 presidential race will pour fuel on the fire.
6. Flashpoints to watch. The intense focus on the war in Ukraine heightens the risk of conflict elsewhere. With Russia distracted, conflicts are breaking out in its backyard. China may decide that there will never be a better time to make a move on Taiwan. India-China tensions could flare in the Himalayas. And might Turkey try to nab a Greek island in the Aegean?
7. Shifting alliances. Amid geopolitical shifts, alliances are responding. nato, revitalised by the war in Ukraine, will welcome two new members. Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham accords, an emerging bloc? Other groupings of growing importance include the Quad and aukus (two American-led clubs intended to deal with China’s rise) and i2u2—not a rock band, but a sustainability forum linking India, Israel, the United Arab Emirates and the United States.
8. Revenge tourism. Take that, covid! As travellers engage in post-lockdown “revenge” tourism, traveller spending will almost regain its 2019 level of $1.4trn, but only because inflation has pushed up prices. The actual number of international tourist trips, at 1.6bn, will still be below the pre-pandemic level of 1.8bn in 2019. Business travel will remain weak as firms cut costs.
9. Metaverse reality check. Will the idea of working and playing in virtual worlds catch on beyond video games? 2023 will provide some answers as Apple launches its first headset and Meta decides whether to change its strategy as its share price languishes. Meanwhile, a less complicated and more immediately useful shift may be the rise of “passkeys” to replace passwords.
10. New year, new jargon. Never heard of a passkey? Fear not! Turn to our special section, “Understand This”, which rounds up the vital vocabulary that will be useful to know in 2023. nimbys are out and yimbys are in; cryptocurrencies are uncool and post-quantum cryptography is hot; but can you define a frozen conflict, or synfuel? We’ve got you covered.
We report as world leaders meet in Bali for the G20 summit. Plus, Kurdish militants deny involvement in the weekend’s Istanbul attack, the Taliban move to implement sharia law in Afghanistan, Austria’s political scandal and Karen Krizanovich wraps up headlines in film.
Questions of public memory—“specifically how people, communities, and nations should account for the crimes of their past”—animate the work of the Atlantic staff writer, author, and poet Clint Smith.
A selection of three essential articles read aloud from the latest issue of The Economist. This week, the Trump effect, (10:30) imagining peace in Ukraine and (18:00) should fans watch the World Cup in Qatar?
The New Yorker Magazine – In the weeks leading up to the 2022 midterms, many pundits predicted that a “red wave” of Republican victories would sweep across the country. There was precedent for this: historically, the President’s party tends to lose seats in midterm contests. Republicans picked up some seats, but this year’s returns showed a much more even match than many had been expecting. With votes still being counted, it seems that the G.O.P. will most likely eke out a narrow majority in the House, and control of the Senate may not be decided for weeks. Whatever you call the over-all result in the country’s close political battles, it didn’t quite amount to a wave.
For the cover of the November 21, 2022, issue, the cartoonist Barry Blitt followed a long tradition and chose an animal to represent reality metaphorically: “The chance to draw an elephant—especially one on a surfboard—is irresistible for a cartoonist, but I can’t help thinking how counterintuitive it is to represent the G.O.P. in its current form with such a dignified, graceful, sensitive-seeming beast.”
PBS NewsHour – New York Times columnist David Brooks and Washington Post associate editor Jonathan Capehart join Judy Woodruff to discuss the week in politics, including the red wave that failed to materialize and what it means for former President Trump’s role in the Republican party.
Benjamin Netanyahu is nothing if not a fighter.Having been ousted as Israel’s prime minister a year ago by an alliance of political foes and now embroiled in a corruption trial (he denies all charges), one might have thought the 73-year-old’s career was up.
The Cop27 climate talks got under way in Egypt, as debate raged over the agenda as well as a furore over hosting the event in a country where political and human rights are a live issue. Environment editor Fiona Harvey explains what the talks – which run until 18 November – can hope to achieve, amid a slew of alarming reports about the rate of global heating.
This week’s magazine went to press too soon to feature news of the US midterm elections – there’ll be plenty on that in the next edition. In the meantime, Leyland Cecco reports from Canada, where there are claims China is operating a chain of clandestine police stations to keep tabs on its diaspora.
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