At the end of 2025, Patrick Wintour wrote a compelling essay for Guardian Weekly in which he described an interregnum in global history, where the rules-based order had been eroded and great powers once again jostled for control and influence.
This week’s edition sees Patrick return to a key aspect of that theme, the deteriorating global standing of the United States after a period of high-stakes brinkmanship with Iran. Donald Trump’s aborted threat that Iranian civilisation would “die … never to be brought back” unless it ceded to his demands exposed the limits of his apocalyptic foreign policy. It also pointed to the wider decline of American influence in a world where the US appears untrustworthy and strategically isolated.
Spotlight | Hungary’s new dawn After 16 years, Viktor Orbán’s populist grip on the country’s politics is over. But will his successor Péter Magyar be much different? Ashifa Kassam and Flora Garamvolgyi report amid jubilant scenes in Budapest
Science | The man who was bitten by snakes 200 times – on purpose Tim Friede put his “ass on the line” to help stop snakebite deaths – whose numbers appear to be rising amid the climate crisis. Oliver Milman met him
Feature | The brutal reality of life as a foreign student in the UK Universities in Britain rely on overseas applicants paying full fees, which has given rise to some unscrupulous recruiters and left many hopefuls and their families deep in debt. Samira Shackle investigates
Opinion | Netanyahu-ism has achieved nothing for Israelis It is the voting public in Israel that will settle their PM’s fate later this year. But, argues Jonathan Freedland, all they have heard are promises of “total victory” that prove to be hollow
Culture | Jim Jarmusch, the darling of indie cinema The 73-year-old has been at the cutting edge of US independent movies since the 1980s. As Father Mother Sister Brother opens in the UK, he tells Amy Raphael about grief, greed and “doing crazy shit” with Steve Coogan
An irony of Viktor Orbán’s 16-year grip on power in Hungary is that his Fidesz movement was originally founded by pro-democracy, change-seeking young voters, even initially requiring members to be below the age of 35.
Now, in a crossroads election on 12 April, a new generation of Hungarians may be on the cusp of removing the rightwing populist prime minister, much to the dismay of his admirers in Moscow, Washington and Europe’s populist movements.
Orbán may have once described Hungary as “a petri dish for illiberalism” – as reflected by Harry Haysom’s cover art for us this week – but polls suggest his opponent Péter Magyar, a former top member of Fidesz who favours a closer relationship with the EU, could be the new change agent.
Spotlight | Was Trump conned by Netanyahu’s promise of an easy war? Senior US officials now consider the Israel PM’s pitch to have been overblown, creating potentially far-reaching consequences for both countries, writes Peter Beaumont
Science | The 21st-century moon prospectors Helium-3 is so rare that a palm-sized amount could be worth millions. As Artemis II flies by the moon and businesses look to the skies, is mining Earth’s satellite ethical? Oliver Holmes investigates
Feature | Can the UK’s cargo theft crisis be stopped? It costs the UK economy £700m ($920m) a year, and criminal gangs are operating with near impunity. Every time a lorry gets robbed, raided or hijacked, it’s Mike Dawber who investigates. ByStuart McGurk
Opinion | Ten years after Brexit, Trump is pushing Britain back towards the EU It’s the silver lining from this terrible age of Donald Trump, argues Gaby Hinsliff: his disdain and insults are fuelling the belief that the UK should renew ties with Europe
Culture | James McAvoy, froma Glasgow council estate to Hollywood stardom In his directorial debut, the X-Men actor is challenging stereotypes about his Scottish homeland via the remarkable tale of a real-life hip-hop hoax. Libby Brooks met him
This is Donald Trump’s world—we’re all just living in it. The disruptor-in-chief was the biggest factor shaping global affairs in 2025, and that will be the case for as long as he remains in the White House. His norm-shattering approach has caused turmoil in some areas (as in trade) but has also delivered diplomatic results (as in Gaza) and forced necessary change (as with European defence spending). As the Trumpnado spins on in 2026, here are ten trends and themes to watch in the coming year.
Expect to hear wildly diverging accounts of America’s past, present and future, as Republicans and Democrats describe the same country in irreconcilably different terms to mark the 250th anniversary of its founding. Voters will then give their verdict on America’s future in the midterm elections in November. But even if the Democrats take the House, Mr Trump’s rule by bullying, tariffs and executive orders will go on.
Foreign-policy analysts are divided: is the world in a new cold war, between blocs led by America and China, or will a Trumpian deal divide the planet into American, Russian and Chinese “spheres of influence”, in which each can do as they please? Don’t count on either. Mr Trump prefers a transactional approach based on instinct, not grand geopolitical paradigms. The old global rules-based order will drift and decay further. But “coalitions of the willing” will strike new deals in areas such as defence, trade and climate.
With luck, the fragile peace in Gaza will hold. But conflicts will grind on in Ukraine, Sudan and Myanmar. Russia and China will test America’s commitment to its allies with “grey-zone” provocations in northern Europe and the South China Sea. As the line between war and peace becomes ever more blurred, tensions will rise in the Arctic, in orbit, on the sea floor and in cyberspace.
All this poses a particular test for Europe. It must increase defence spending, keep America on side, boost economic growth and deal with huge deficits, even though austerity risks stoking support for hard-right parties. It also wants to remain a leading advocate for free trade and greenery. It cannot do all of these at once. A splurge on defence spending may lift growth, but only slightly.
China has its own problems, with deflation, slowing growth and an industrial glut, but Mr Trump’s “America First” policy opens up new opportunities for China to boost its global influence. It will present itself as a more reliable partner, particularly in the global south, where it is striking a string of trade agreements. It is happy to do tactical deals with Mr Trump on soyabeans or chips. The trick will be to keep relations with America transactional, not confrontational.With rich countries living beyond their means, the risk of a bond-market crisis is growing
So far America’s economy is proving more resilient than many expected to Mr Trump’s tariffs, but they will dampen global growth. And with rich countries living beyond their means, the risk of a bond-market crisis is growing. Much will depend on the replacement of Jerome Powell as chair of the Federal Reserve in May; politicising the Fed could trigger a market showdown.
Rampant spending on infrastructure for artificial intelligence may also be concealing economic weakness in America. Will the bubble burst? As with railways, electricity and the internet, a crash would not mean that the technology does not have real value. But it could have wide economic impact. Either way, concern about AI’s impact on jobs, particularly those of graduates, will deepen.
Limiting warming to 1.5°C is off the table, and Mr Trump hates renewables. But global emissions have probably peaked, clean tech is booming across the global south and firms will meet or exceed their climate targets—but will keep quiet about it to avoid Mr Trump’s ire. Geothermal energy is worth watching.
Sport can always be relied upon to provide a break from politics, right? Well, maybe not in 2026. The football World Cup is being jointly hosted by America, Canada and Mexico, whose relations are strained. Fans may stay away. But the Enhanced Games, in Las Vegas, may be even more controversial: athletes can use performance-enhancing drugs. Is it cheating—or just different?
Better, cheaper GLP-1 weight-loss drugs are coming, and in pill form, too. That will expand access. But is taking them cheating? GLP-1s extend the debate about the ethics of performance-enhancing drugs to a far wider group than athletes or bodybuilders. Few people compete in the Olympics. But anyone can take part in the Ozempic games.
The Economist The World Ahead 2025 (November 20, 2024) : In 2025, as seen on the cover, the main event is Trump’s return to the White House and the global consequences of his policies, such as a new wave of trade wars with China. There is also an expected rise in technologies such as artificial intelligence and autonomous vehicles.
Watch the interplay between Donald Trump, technology and radical uncertainty
The cover mentions climate issues and hints at a new phase in the fight for social equality, especially among women. Last year, the cover predicted geopolitical instability, an economic crisis, climate disasters, and the g
Financial Times (January 17, 2024) – In a year in which more than half the world goes to the polls, acclaimed novelist Margaret Atwood asks whether democracy is fragile and easily destroyed or flexible and resilient.
This animated monologue is the first of four films examining the state of government, representation, rights and freedom.
The Economist Magazine (December 14, 2023): The latest issue features ‘The media and the message’ – Journalism and the 2024 presidential election; ‘Can you have a healthy democracy without a common set of facts?; Iran’s regime is weaker than it looks, and therefore more pliable, and more…
America’s presidential election is a test of that proposition
Journalists should not spend much of their time writing about journalism. The world is more interesting than the inky habits of the people who report on it. But this week we are making an exception, because the discovery and dissemination of information matters a lot to politics. Don’t take our word for it: “A popular government,” wrote James Madison in 1822, “without popular information, or the means of acquiring it, is but a prologue to a farce or a tragedy; or, perhaps both.” Were Thomas Jefferson offered a choice between a government without newspapers and newspapers without a government, he said that he would choose the press (though that is probably going a bit far).
America should deter it from escalating the Gaza war, but also engage with it
Twelve months ago Iran was reeling from protests sparked by the death in custody of a young woman who had been arrested for showing too much hair. Its theocratic regime was increasingly isolated, as Arab states forged closer ties with its enemy, Israel. The economy was a mess, adding to popular anger at Iran’s ageing supreme leader and inept president. The Islamic Republic had not seemed so vulnerable in decades.
The Economist Magazine (December 7, 2023): The latest issue featuresIsrael and Palestine: how to get to peace – For there to be any hope, both Israelis and Palestinians need new leaders; What if Trump stumbles? – And what might happen if Trump dropped out; Make or break for renewables – Supply-chain dysfunction, rising interest rates and protectionism are making life tough; Our books of the year – This year’s picks transport readers to mountain peaks, out to sea and back in time…
Financial Times
Boomers Daily 