The struggle to reinvent a firm trapped by its own mythology
But Xi Jinping is unlikely to change
It is easier to run than America’s Abrams—and in plentiful supply in Europe
President Erdogan could tip his country over the edge
At 100, the mouse can still roar. But it faces a new kind of rival
What lessons can be learned from a miserable winter across the rich world?
The question of Europe has caused a decade of turmoil. Here’s how to use the next ten years better
Power struggles, public humiliation and a government shutdown may follow
Video timeline: 00:00 – The World Ahead 2023 00:35 – India’s population potential 04:30 – Psychedelic medicines 08:06 – Japan’s markets mayhem? 12:45 – Repairing the world 15:50 – The coronation’s colonial concerns
For the heroism of its people, and for standing up to a bully
Some years bring disorder, others a resolution. This one asked questions
He has had a crash course in the trade-offs in protecting free expression
Ukraine’s chiefs, in an unprecedented series of briefings, tell The Economist about the critical months that lie ahead
It must treat hospitals as a precious resource and start stockpiling drugs
Even when they say they want more prosperity, they act as if they don’t
Caught between raging disease and unpopular and costly lockdowns, he has no good fix
Why the West’s proposed price cap on Russian oil is no magic weapon
Why trustbusters should let Microsoft buy Activision Blizzard
This will weaken it and threaten its global position
Hollywood is suffering from the brutal economics of streaming
Europe should let them do their jobs
A letter from Tom Standage, editor of “The World Ahead 2023”
1. All eyes on Ukraine. Energy prices, inflation, interest rates, economic growth, food shortages—all depend on how the conflict plays out in the coming months. Rapid progress by Ukraine could threaten Vladimir Putin, but a grinding stalemate seems the most likely outcome. Russia will try to string out the conflict in the hope that energy shortages, and political shifts in America, will undermine Western support for Ukraine.
2. Recessions loom. Major economies will go into recession as central banks raise interest rates to stifle inflation, an after-effect of the pandemic since inflamed by high energy prices. America’s recession should be relatively mild; Europe’s will be more brutal. The pain will be global as the strong dollar hurts poor countries already hit by soaring food prices.
3. Climate silver lining. As countries rush to secure their energy supplies, they are turning back to dirty fossil fuels. But in the medium term the war will accelerate the switch to renewables as a safer alternative to hydrocarbons supplied by autocrats. As well as wind and solar, nuclear and hydrogen will benefit too.
4. Peak China? Some time in April China’s population will be overtaken by India’s, at around 1.43bn. With China’s population in decline, and its economy facing headwinds, expect much discussion of whether China has peaked. Slower growth means its economy may never overtake America’s in size.
5. Divided America. Although Republicans did worse than expected in the midterm elections, social and cultural divides on abortion, guns and other hot-button issues continue to widen after a string of contentious Supreme Court rulings. Donald Trump’s formal entry into the 2024 presidential race will pour fuel on the fire.
6. Flashpoints to watch. The intense focus on the war in Ukraine heightens the risk of conflict elsewhere. With Russia distracted, conflicts are breaking out in its backyard. China may decide that there will never be a better time to make a move on Taiwan. India-China tensions could flare in the Himalayas. And might Turkey try to nab a Greek island in the Aegean?
7. Shifting alliances. Amid geopolitical shifts, alliances are responding. nato, revitalised by the war in Ukraine, will welcome two new members. Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham accords, an emerging bloc? Other groupings of growing importance include the Quad and aukus (two American-led clubs intended to deal with China’s rise) and i2u2—not a rock band, but a sustainability forum linking India, Israel, the United Arab Emirates and the United States.
8. Revenge tourism. Take that, covid! As travellers engage in post-lockdown “revenge” tourism, traveller spending will almost regain its 2019 level of $1.4trn, but only because inflation has pushed up prices. The actual number of international tourist trips, at 1.6bn, will still be below the pre-pandemic level of 1.8bn in 2019. Business travel will remain weak as firms cut costs.
9. Metaverse reality check. Will the idea of working and playing in virtual worlds catch on beyond video games? 2023 will provide some answers as Apple launches its first headset and Meta decides whether to change its strategy as its share price languishes. Meanwhile, a less complicated and more immediately useful shift may be the rise of “passkeys” to replace passwords.
10. New year, new jargon. Never heard of a passkey? Fear not! Turn to our special section, “Understand This”, which rounds up the vital vocabulary that will be useful to know in 2023. nimbys are out and yimbys are in; cryptocurrencies are uncool and post-quantum cryptography is hot; but can you define a frozen conflict, or synfuel? We’ve got you covered.
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