FOREIGN AFFAIRS MAGAZINE (February 6, 2025): In the months since Donald Trump won the U.S. presidential election in November, policymakers in Beijing have been looking to the next four years of U.S.-Chinese relations with trepidation. Beijing has been expecting the Trump administration to pursue tough policies toward China, potentially escalating the two countries’ trade war, tech war, and confrontation over Taiwan. The prevailing wisdom is that China must prepare for storms ahead in its dealings with the United States.
Trump’s imposition of ten percent tariffs on all Chinese goods this week seemed to justify those worries. China retaliated swiftly, announcing its own tariffs on certain U.S. goods, as well as restrictions on exports of critical minerals and an antimonopoly investigation into the U.S.-based company Google. But even though Beijing has such tools at its disposal, its ability to outmaneuver Washington in a tit-for-tat exchange is limited by the United States’ relative power and large trade deficit with China. Chinese policymakers, aware of the problem, have been planning more than trade war tactics. Since Trump’s first term, they have been adapting their approach to the United States, and they have spent the past three months further developing their strategy to anticipate, counter, and minimize the damage of Trump’s volatile policymaking. As a result of that planning, a broad effort to shore up China’s domestic economy and foreign relations has been quietly underway.
FOREIGN AFFAIRS MAGAZINE (February 5, 2025): Today, about 20 percent of southeastern Ukraine is under Russian occupation, including Crimea and large parts of the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions. Russian President Vladimir Putin has painted the war in Ukraine as a nationalist campaign to repel Western advances and reclaim territory that, in his view, rightfully belongs to Russia. But conquest has another motivation: economic gain. If Russia maintains military control over these regions, it may be hoping to reap that benefit. At this stage, however, it is hardly clear that they would become economic assets for Moscow; supporting the war-torn territories could just as easily become a drain on its coffers.
The human costs of this war are enormous. Russian forces are ruling occupied Ukraine with an iron fist, engaging in a ruthless campaign of torture, kidnapping, violence, and arbitrary killing. Any assessment of the war’s economic consequences should not minimize its awful depravity or the immense suffering it has inflicted. But its economic outcome will affect future judgments of Putin’s decision to invade in February 2022. If Russia benefits economically from the occupation of Ukraine, the war may be remembered as a strategic success, albeit a coldblooded one. If Russia instead suffers economically, the invasion will be seen as a self-defeating, barbaric blunder.
The ‘McKinley Tariffs’ were some of the largest hikes in U.S. history, but in his second term, McKinley changed his mind, and argued for more free international trade as a way of helping the U.S. economy. WSJ explores how McKinley used tariffs, how Trump is following a similar playbook and why McKinley. Actually came to speak out against them.
THE ECONOMIST MAGAZINE (February 3, 2025): That Donald Trump may unleash a global trade war is a frightening but familiar risk. Less well understood is the danger that he may also provoke a tax war. One of his first actions on returning to the White House was to warn other countries that if they adopt tax policies America dislikes, he may double tax rates on their companies and even their citizens.
Faragism and Starmerism are fronts in a global struggle between insurgent nationalism and cautious defenders of the old political order. For British democracy to triumph, the prime minister must find his voice
The press lobby is going feral—ignore it
Given the pressures of 24-hour news, lobby journalists cannot plausibly understand policy detail. Their skillset is to nose around and cause trouble
Inside the supply chain: my week on a container ship
Vessels like the Timca are the unnoticed worker ants of our global economy, bringing us the cheap food, clothes and household items we
He returned much as he had departed (not that he ever really did), beneath a pall of controversy. In a Capitol ceremony drenched with quasi-religious fervour, Donald Trump was sworn in as the 47th US president, simultaneously pledging a new golden age for America and a radical shake-up of the global order.
Amid a barrage of unnerving executive orders that will surely set the tone for a new era of disruption and division, David Smith was in Washington DC to witness a dark moment for many, while diplomatic editor Patrick Wintour lays out the fears of a world hoping for the best but preparing for the worst.
From the Middle East came a moment of hope. Bethan McKernan’s dispatch on the first day of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire encapsulates the emotion and relief felt by millions. But will it lead to lasting peace? Don’t celebrate too soon, warns Peter Beaumont.
Spotlight | Has South Korea witnessed its own January 6 moment? Protesters who stormed a Seoul court at the weekend may not have worn animal skins, but the similarities are striking, explain Raphael Rashid and Justin McCurry
Environment | Why did LA’s wildfires explode out of control? A combustible combination of factors laid the groundwork for disaster. Will LA learn the lessons from the fires as it moves forward? Gabrielle Canon and Lois Beckett report
Feature | Can the British Museum survive its omni-crisis? Beset by colonial controversy, difficult finances and the discovery of a thief on the inside, Britain’s No 1 museum is in deep trouble. Can it restore its reputation? Charlotte Higgins investigates
Opinion | Trump and Musk have launched a new class war Across the world, societies are reverting to oligarchies. How to resist? Fight for democracy with all we’ve got, argues George Monbiot
Culture | An inside job: the return of Severance Who is in charge? What are they working on? And why is there livestock in the office? Hannah J Davies meets the cast and creator of Apple’s deliciously weird workplace drama
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