As birth rates plunge, many politicians want to pour money into policies that might lead women to have more babies. Donald Trump has vowed to dish out bonuses if he returns to the White House. In France, where the state already spends 3.5-4% of gdp on family policies each year, Emmanuel Macron wants to “demographically rearm” his country. South Korea is contemplating handouts worth a staggering $70,000 for each baby. Yet all these attempts are likely to fail, because they are built on a misapprehension.
Governments’ concern is understandable. Fertility rates are falling nearly everywhere and the rich world faces a severe shortage of babies. At prevailing birth rates, the average woman in a high-income country today will have just 1.6 children over her lifetime. Every rich country except Israel has a fertility rate beneath the replacement level of 2.1, at which a population is stable without immigration. The decline over the past decade has been faster than demographers expected.
At first glance, the world economy looks reassuringly resilient. America has boomed even as its trade war with China has escalated. Germany has withstood the loss of Russian gas supplies without suffering an economic disaster. War in the Middle East has brought no oil shock. Missile-firing Houthi rebels have barely touched the global flow of goods. As a share of global gdp, trade has bounced back from the pandemic and is forecast to grow healthily this year.
The Globalist (April 1, 2024): Voters head to the polls in Turkey to vote in local and mayoral elections in what’s being seen as a test for President Reccep Tayyip Erdogan.
Plus: the return of Isis, Australia’s diplomatic deficit and Austria’s vacancy tax.
The Globalist (March 28, 2024): As farmers protest across Europe, we get the latest on a possible grain deal between Poland and Ukraine.
Then: protesters take to the streets in Hungary over a corruption case and the latest threats to Slovakia’s public broadcaster. Plus: design news and why Italians talk with their hands.
The Globalist (March 27, 2024): We discuss Emmanuel Macron’s three-day state visit to Brazil,
Monocle’s US editor, Christopher Lord, reports from Oakland as Robert F Kennedy Jr announces his presidential running mate and we join Monocle’s Asia editor, James Chambers, from The Chiefs conference in Hong Kong. Plus: Karl Lagerfeld’s last Paris residence sells for double the starting price.
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