The Economist Magazine- June 24, 2023 issue: The humbling of Vladimir Putin; The Wagner mutiny has left Vladimir Putin looking dangerously exposed; Can Ukraine capitalise on chaos in Russia?
The industry looks headed for a major rebound, defying expectations of a long-term decline. Stocks such as Diamond Offshore Drilling and Noble could surge 50% or more.
The costs of taming price rises could prove too unpalatable for central banks
At first glance the world economy appears to have escaped from a tight spot. In the United States annual inflation has fallen to 4%, having approached double digits last year. A recession is nowhere in sight and the Federal Reserve has felt able to take a break from raising interest rates. After a gruesome 2022, stockmarkets have been celebrating: the s&p 500 index of American firms has risen by 14% so far this year, propelled by a resurgence in tech stocks. Only in Britain does inflation seem to be worryingly entrenched.
For Russia’s war to fail, Ukraine must emerge prosperous, democratic and secure
Ukraine’s war is raging on two fronts. On the 1,000km battlefront its armies are attacking the Russians’ deep defences. At the same time, on the home front Ukraine is defining what sort of country it will be when the fighting stops. Both matter, and both will pose a severe test for Ukraine and its backers.
Iran cannot rival Ukraine and Taiwan for headlines, but it could soon prove as dangerous as either. Its nuclear-weapons programme has put its regime in a position to dash for a bomb. Because full-blown negotiations are impossible, the threat could yet draw the Middle East into war—including through American strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. That is why it is good that the Biden administration is seeking to lower tensions.
The controversial China-founded retailer is growing into a global titan. Analysts say that many Western competitors are ignoring the app—at their peril.
India does not love the West, but it is indispensable to America
No country except China has propped up Russia’s war economy as much as oil-thirsty India. And few big democracies have slid further in the rankings of democratic freedom. But you would not guess it from the rapturous welcome Narendra Modi will receive in Washington next week. India’s prime minister has been afforded the honour of a state visit by President Joe Biden. The Americans hope to strike defence deals.
Inflation has taken a bite out of budgets, and that’s particularly true at the grocery store, as everyday essentials from cereal to sugar have shot up in price. That sticker shock provides motivation for strapped consumers to eschew their favorite brands for less-expensive generics—often made by TreeHouse Foods
The counter-offensive is getting under way. The next few weeks will be critical
Trailed ten days early with a blood-stirring video in which Ukrainian troops asked God to bless their “sacred revenge”, Ukraine’s counter-offensive is under way. For weeks its armed forces have conducted probing and shaping operations along the 1,000km front line, looking for weaknesses and confusing the Russians. Now Ukraine is testing enemy defences with an intensity not seen for months, with attacks against the occupiers in a series of positions in the east and south. The apparent demolition of the Kakhovka dam on June 6th, if it was indeed Russian sabotage as Western military sources believe, would be clear evidence that they are already feeling the pressure.
No one shows off a new gadget quite like Apple. But the device that Tim Cook unveiled on June 5th was billed as something more significant. The Vision Pro, a pair of sleek glass goggles, represents “an entirely new spatial-computing platform”, said Apple’s boss, comparing its launch to that of the Macintosh and the iPhone. Apple’s message is clear: after desktop and mobile computing, the next big tech era will be spatial computing—also known as augmented reality—in which computer graphics are overlaid on the world around the user.
Real estate investment trusts have been clobbered over the past year. We survey the landscape, from REITs that specialize in cell towers, data centers, and warehouses to ones holding troubled office buildings. Where to find value and where to dodge traps.
What might change the world’s dire demographic trajectory?
In the roughly 250 years since the Industrial Revolution the world’s population, like its wealth, has exploded. Before the end of this century, however, the number of people on the planet could shrink for the first time since the Black Death. The root cause is not a surge in deaths, but a slump in births. Across much of the world the fertility rate, the average number of births per woman, is collapsing. Although the trend may be familiar, its extent and its consequences are not. Even as artificial intelligence (ai) leads to surging optimism in some quarters, the baby bust hangs over the future of the world economy.
It certainly wasn’t fair. Nor was it entirely free. But, like it or not, the victory on May 28th of Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Turkey’s presidential election is a fact. For the next five years Turkey, Europe and the wider world will have to deal with a prickly and authoritarian populist. That is bad news on many fronts: economically, democratically and regionally. And yet pragmatists have a duty to search for chinks of light in the gloom.
That compounds the problems of shrinking workforces and rising bills for health care and pensions
“Adam is a special child,” says the voice-over, as the camera pans across abandoned classrooms and deserted maternity wards. “He’s the last child born in Italy.” The short film made for Plasmon, an Italian brand of baby food owned by Kraft-Heinz, a giant American firm, is set in 2050. It imagines an Italy where babies are a thing of the past. It is exaggerating for effect, of course, but not by as much as you might imagine. The number of births in Italy peaked at 1m in 1964; by 2050, the un projects, it will have shrunk by almost two-thirds, to 346,000.